FACT SHEET: FORECASTED AUTOMOBILE GASOLINE CONSUMPTION. ANALYSIS MEMORANDUM, AM/EU-7801

The system used for projecting automotive gasoline consumption and efficiency which was used for the EIA Annual Report to Congress made use of historical data on fuel efficiency, together with specific projections of gasoline prices and major macroeconomic variables. Projected new-car efficiency was based upon the assumption that manufacturers would attempt to minimize the sum of the manufacturing costs arising from improved efficiency and civil penalties associated with not meeting EPCA efficiency standards. In Volume II of this report, estimated on-road efficiencies were calculated by applying a constant degradation factor to efficiencies as measured on the basis of EPA tests. This yields an on-road efficiency of about 21 mpg in 1985. In an analysis which has been done since release of the report, a new set of empirically estimated degradation factors was used to estimate the on-road new car efficiencies and gasoline consumption which would be consistent with meeting EPCA standards. This resulted in estimates of future on-road efficiencies during the mid-1980's which are generally somewhat higher than those used in the report's analysis. Automobile gasoline consumption was estimated by using the new set of degradation factors to project the range of consumption levels which may be achieved by meeting EPCA standards through 1985. It was found that the automotive gasoline consumption for the 1978 to 1985 period which was projected in the report was within the range of estimates resulting from the application of the new degradation factors. (ERA citation 04:054144)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Department of Energy

    Energy Information Administration, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW
    Washington, DC  United States  20585
  • Publication Date: 1978-5

Media Info

  • Pagination: 13 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00312502
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 7 1980 12:00AM