Influence of Intersection Characteristics on Elderly Driver Crash Involvement

The population in the United States is steadily aging. Consequently, a concentrated effort in recent years is being made to better understand the factors that affect elderly crash occurrence. The elderly are involved in different types of crashes depending on the roadway location. Intersections are locations of high crash risk for the elderly drivers. This study focuses on elderly drivers (age 65 and older) to better understand the types of crashes experienced at and near signalized intersections. The study examines if elements of intersection approaches, such as approach lane type, the number of turning lanes, and approach signal type, may be contributing factors to the likelihood of elderly driver crash involvement. Intersection crash data involving elderly drivers was obtained from crash cluster sites in ten urban counties in Florida. To estimate the likelihood of elderly drivers being in intersection crashes, the study evaluates crash data using binary response regressions (logit, cauchit and complimentary log-log) in a Bayesian framework. Leave-one-out cross validation is used to assess the predictive power of the estimated models. A model using the cauchit link function is observed to have the best predictive accuracy. Results indicate that intersection type (2.976), travel street (-1.248), crash time (-2.311), number of right turn lanes (1.308), presence of a work zone (2.933), and age of driver not at-fault (0.465) , significantly contribute to elderly driver crash involvement. These findings can assist transportation agencies when devising countermeasures for intersection crashes involving elderly drivers.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB60 Standing Committee on Safe Mobility of Older Persons.
• Authors:
  • Haule, Henrick J
  • Sando, Thobias
  • Kitali, Angela E
  • Angel, Michelle L
  • Ozguven, Eren Erman
  • 0000-0001-6006-7635
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 16p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aged drivers; Approach lanes; Crash data; Intersection elements; Regression analysis; Signalized intersections; Traffic crashes; Urban areas; Validation
• Geographic Terms: Florida
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01663096
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-06625
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 20 2018 5:08PM