Probabilistic Evaluation of Pavement-Induced Excess Fuel Consumption Given Data Unavailability and Future Uncertainty

Pavement surface condition and structural properties affect vehicle fuel consumption and result in major contributions to the use phase impact of high-volume roads. This excess fuel consumption (EFC) is described through Pavement-Vehicle Interaction (PVI) as the effect of pavement texture, roughness, and deflection on the rolling resistance of a moving vehicle. The use of PVI models in pavement design and management decisions are hindered by data unavailability and uncertainties associated with the pavement life time, typically decades long. This study addresses data limitations through a probabilistic approach to evaluating PVI impacts in presence of lifecycle uncertainties. The probabilistic deflection and roughness induced EFCs are evaluated for nine data-availability scenarios. Surrogate data are used in absence of structural and material inputs along with distributions of vehicle load, speed, temperature, and roughness over the analysis period. Finally, the probabilistic EFC is evaluated for equivalent asphalt and concrete pavement designs and the data-availability scenarios. The probabilistic EFC results indicate that the proposed methodology for characterization and evaluation of uncertainty in PVI can statistically distinguish the EFCs in a comparative analysis.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AFD90 Standing Committee on Pavement Surface Properties and Vehicle Interaction.
  • Authors:
    • Akbarian, Mehdi
    • Kirchain, Randolph
    • Gregory, Jeremy
    • Ulm, Franz-Josef
  • Conference:
  • Date: 2018


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 18p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01661912
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 18-06086
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Mar 6 2018 4:22PM