A Methodology for Sinkhole Geohazard Modeling and Mapping of East Central Florida

Sinkholes are a major geohazard in east Central Florida (ECF) and having an accurate means to predict these sinkhole hazards is required to transportation community so that transportation infrastrucutures are planned and designed in safe and resilient manners. For example, the produced sinkhole hazard map helps engineers to mitigate sinkhole hazard and planners to plan land use. This paper presents and discusses the development of a sinkhole hazard model and map for ECF by using a frequency ratio (FR) method. A sinkhole inventory map was prepared using Florida Subsidence Incident Reports of Florida Geological Survey (FGS) and aerial photographs with GIS. In the study area, a total of 782 sinkholes were identified, and 70% (547) of sinkhole locations were randomly selected to build sinkhole hazard model and the rest 30% (235) of sinkholes were used as validation purpose. Seven key contributing factors used in the sinkhole hazard model include hydraulic head difference, recharge rate, soil permeability, overburden thickness, aquitard layer thickness, depth to water table, and proximity to karst features. Subsequently, a sinkhole hazard map was created by implementing the FR model. The prediction capability of the model was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The AUC of this model was calculated as 0.92 indicating a good performance of the model.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AFP20 Standing Committee on Geotechnical Site Characterization.
• Authors:
  • Kim, Yong Je
  • Nam, Boo Hyun
  • Lim, Chang-su
  • Xiao, Han
  • Wang, Dingbao
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 7p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aerial photography; Geographic information systems; Hazard analysis; Mapping; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Sinkholes; Soil mechanics; Validation
• Identifier Terms: Florida Geological Survey
• Geographic Terms: Central Florida
• Subject Areas: Geotechnology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01663979
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-05816
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 22 2018 12:03PM