Using Life Cycle Cost Analyses (LCCAs) to Evaluate Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Transportation Projects: A Colorado Case Study

Life cycle cost analyses (LCCAs) are an important tool for transportation practitioners in determining how to make an asset design more resilient to climate change. LCCAs can put total costs and benefits into perspective when considering multiple design options or even whether to adapt at all. Although there are well-established methods for conducting LCCAs, standard approaches need modification to consider climate change. This paper discusses development of climate stressor-damage relationship curves, combined with use of a Monte Carlo analysis, Area Under the Curve calculation, development of future scenarios, or a hybrid approach to complete an LCCA. Then, this paper presents an application of a hybrid approach that used both a Monte Carlo analysis and a scenarios approach to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of several alternative designs for a culvert on US 34 in Colorado. Climate projections for Northern Colorado project a drier climate in the future, yielding less precipitation and an increased incidence of wildfire. These impacts conjointly will result in additional sediment discharges. Projecting climate change and the incidence of wildfire involves large uncertainties, and accounting for the confounding effects presents an analytical challenge when evaluating adaptation alternatives. This methodology can be used to support decision making regarding climate change adaptation alternatives under compounded uncertainty. In addition, this methodology can be used to determine which adaptation design alternative is the most consistently resilient across the range of climate change and disaster event scenarios.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee A0020T Special Task Force on Climate Change and Energy. Alternate title: Using Life-Cycle Cost Analyses (LCCAs) to Evaluate Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Transportation Projects
• Authors:
  • Rodehorst, Beth
  • Cooper, Will
  • Ryder, David
  • Lennon, Justin
  • Dorney, Chris
  • Kafalenos, Robert
  • Hyman, Robert
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 18p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Climate change; Cost effectiveness; Culverts; Disaster resilience; Forecasting; Forest fires; Life cycle costing; Monte Carlo method; Wildfires
• Geographic Terms: Colorado
• Subject Areas: Design; Environment; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01660153
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-04966
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 15 2018 4:36PM