Dynamic Household Vehicle Decision Modeling Considering Plug-In Electric Vehicles

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) offer alternatives to traditional vehicles that rely on petroleum-based fuels. While PEV customers can enjoy significant reductions in fuel costs, they incur a larger capital cost than users of traditional vehicles because PEV technology is still maturing. Therefore, consumers adopting PEVs face a trade-off between fuel cost savings with environmental benefits and extra capital cost. It is thus crucial for policy makers and PEV manufacturers to understand people’s vehicle decision-making process while considering their socio-economic and travel pattern characteristics as well as the built-environment factors. This paper presents a connected, two-stage, dynamic model of PEV adoption and vehicle-transaction decision-making. Two connected nested logit (NL) models are estimated. The upper level is a two-level NL model to predict choice of vehicle type between four fuel types: gasoline, diesel, hybrid gasoline–electric, and PEV. The lower level is an NL model of vehicle-transaction choice which accommodates four transaction decisions of buy, trade, dispose, and do nothing, while accounting for the log-sum from the vehicle-type choice model, and is estimated using two waves of a panel data set. We find that households with higher levels of income and education are more likely to adopt a PEV. We also found that primarily decision makers take into account the accessibility to charging stations as a critical factor in choosing PEVs.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198118796925
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Authors:
  • Nazari, Fatemeh
  • Mohammadian, Abolfazl (Kouros)
  • Stephens, Thomas
• Publication Date: 2018-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 91-100
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
  • Volume: 2672
  • Issue Number: 49
  • Publisher: Sage Publications, Incorporated
  • ISSN: 0361-1981
  • EISSN: 2169-4052
  • Serial URL: http://journals.sagepub.com/home/trr

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Choice models; Decision making; Electric vehicles; Households; Logits; Socioeconomic factors; Travel behavior
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01660426
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-04260
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 20 2018 9:28AM