Non-urban Passenger Travel Demand and CO₂ Emissions: A Global Perspective

This study aims to present long-term scenarios on domestic non-urban passenger mobility and related CO₂ emissions up to 2050 at the global level. It uses a new model developed at the International Transport Forum’s (ITF). Results from the baseline scenario show that, between 2015 and 2050, non-urban travel demand may nearly triple by 2050, with CO₂ emissions from the sector doubling. The mode share of private cars will continue to increase, contributing to more than 70% of the total CO₂ emission from the sector. The authors also introduce a low-carbon scenario, aiming at reducing the carbon-intensity of travel through fuel efficiency improvements, increased use of alternative fuel and incentives for mode shift. The results show the significant impact such measures can have in addressing the expected growth in emissions. They also highlight the preponderant role of vehicle technology as a mitigation measure, even though improving rail and bus services is also needed to further reduce the carbon footprint of non-urban mobility.

Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADD40 Standing Committee on Transportation and Sustainability. Alternate title: Nonurban Passenger Travel Demand and CO2 Emissions: A Global Perspective
Authors:
- Chen, Guineng
- Benezech, Vincent
Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Date: 2018

Language

English

Media Info

Media Type: Digital/other
Features: Figures; References; Tables;
Pagination: 15p

Subject/Index Terms

TRT Terms: Demand; Greenhouse gases; Mathematical models; Passenger transportation; Rural areas; Suburbs; Traffic mitigation
Subject Areas: Environment; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy;

Filing Info

Accession Number: 01660033
Record Type: Publication
Report/Paper Numbers: 18-03905
Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
Created Date: Feb 14 2018 10:47AM