Forecasting Weekend Travel Demand with an Activity-Based Model

Weekend travel demand is rarely explicitly predicted using a travel demand forecasting model. Instead, annualization of weekday demand is often used to account for weekend travel. Annualization precludes the study of transportation policies formulated specifically to manage weekend travel and mobility. This paper describes the development of a travel demand model intended to examine the impact of tolling, parking and transit policies on weekend access to Treasure Island in San Francisco County. The weekend demand model takes advantage of the disaggregate nature of the weekday activity-based model. Its tour generation forecast is constructed by re-sampling weekday records by tour purpose, time-of-day and person type. The sampling rates were established based on a base weekday forecast, and targets for weekend travel constructed from the weekend portion of the 2012 California Household Travel Survey. Subsequent model components such as mode choice and time-of-day choice were recalibrated to weekend distributions. Observed weekend traffic and transit data were used to validate the entire model system to regional and local weekend conditions. The weekend model was implemented quickly because the effort of estimating a full set of demand models and corresponding application code was avoided. The final weekend model provides a full range of disaggregate activity-based model outputs and sensitivities. This weekend model along with a special events model was applied in the development of the Treasure Island Mobility Plan to assess the revenue and equity implications of tolling access to the island during weekends.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB50 Standing Committee on Transportation Planning Applications.
• Authors:
  • Sidharthan, Raghu
  • Wu, Jingyan (Dora)
  • Sana, Bhargava
  • Castiglione, Joseph
  • Picado, Rosella
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Mobility; Tolls; Travel demand; Weekends
• Geographic Terms: San Francisco (California)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01663297
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-03784
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 21 2018 10:04AM