Freight Generation Models for Developing Economies: Predicting Freight Needs of Establishments in 13 Industry Sectors in Kerala (India) Using Regression Models and Multiple Classification Analysis

Freight generation (FG) models are important to transportation authorities and planning agencies as they can be used for facility planning, evaluation of freight-specific investments and forecasting local/regional/state/national freight movements for future developments. Compared to the research and modelling efforts in passenger transportation, surface freight transportation remains largely unexplored in developing economies. To meet this requirement, establishment-based-freight-survey was conducted in more than 460 establishments in Kerala, India. Using this data, a set of 52 practice-ready FG models are developed for establishments in 13 industry sectors. The relationship of establishment size variables (employment and area) with annual freight production (FP) and attraction (FA) is investigated using ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression technique. Modelling results revealed that employment is a better representative of FP, whereas area represents FA better. Employment based FP rates in Kerala are found to be lesser than that in New York, much like what is observed in passenger transportation where developing economies have lower trip rates than developed countries. Nomograms and FG rate tables are developed using Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA) technique for all industry sectors considering employment and floor area as categories. These nomograms and FG rate tables may be used as planning tools for city developing agencies in developing economies, while incorporating freight transportation in the overall planning process.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AT015 Standing Committee on Freight Transportation Planning and Logistics.
• Authors:
  • Pani, Agnivesh
  • Sahu, Prasanta K
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
• Date: 2018

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 21p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Developing countries; Employment; Forecasting; Freight transportation; Industries; Regression analysis; Surveys; Trip generation
• Geographic Terms: Kerala (India)
• Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01661366
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 18-03003
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 27 2018 9:44AM