Forecasting the Peak-Period Station-to-Station Origin–Destination Matrix in Urban Rail Transit System: Case Study of Chongqing, China

The maximum one-direction section passenger flow within peak hour is an important indicator for planning and design of urban rail transit. To determine it, it is necessary to forecast passengers’ departure time and route choice during peak period. As the basis of this process, the peak-period station-to-station origin-destination (OD) matrix reflects the passengers’ travel needs. This paper tests traditional gravity models in forecasting the peak-period station-to-station origin and destination (OD) matrix in urban rail transit with a real-world case study of Chongqing, China. To solve its over-estimation when deterrence between two stations is too little, the gravity-model-based Peak Period Coefficient (PPC) model is introduced. Comparing results show that with the same dataset, the PPC model is superior to the gravity model. Its standard deviation is only 12.90 passengers, reduced by 56.02%.

Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP065 Standing Committee on Rail Transit Systems. Alternate title: Forecasting the Peak Period Station-to-Station Origin–Destination Matrix in Urban Rail Transit System: A Case Study of Chongqing, China
Authors:
- Cheng, Yan
- Ye, Xiafei
- Zhou, Lifeng
Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Date: 2018

Language

English

Media Info

Media Type: Digital/other
Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
Pagination: 18p

Subject/Index Terms

TRT Terms: Case studies; Forecasting; Gravity models; Origin and destination; Peak periods; Rail transit; Rail transit stations; Ridership
Geographic Terms: Chongqing (China)
Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Railroads;

Filing Info

Accession Number: 01662542
Record Type: Publication
Report/Paper Numbers: 18-02370
Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
Created Date: Mar 12 2018 3:02PM