A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL OF THE SHIPPING AND SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRIES

System dynamics, essentially a part of control theory, is now being used to forecast fluctuations in supply and demand in the shipping and shipbuilding industries. This paper describes the configuration of the model for determining yearly orders of ships according to type and discusses the assumptions made in its development. The validity of the model has been confirmed by comparison of its output with actual records over the period 1968-1975; using tankers as the example. A further model has been constructed to demonstrate the instability of the industries for the next 30 years using the situation in 1975 as initial input value and setting the GNP growth rate at a fixed four per cent.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Nippon Steel Corporation

    345 Park Avenue, 41st Floor
    New York, NY  United States  10022
  • Authors:
    • Hiramoto, F
    • Koyama, T
  • Publication Date: 1978-10

Media Info

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00308244
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Ship Research Association
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 27 1980 12:00AM