A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2017.06.007
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X17301602
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0968090X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Chen, Min
  • Yu, Guizhen
  • Chen, Peng
  • Wang, Yunpeng
• Publication Date: 2017-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 1-23
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
  • Volume: 82
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0968-090X
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0968090X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Arterial highways; Multivariate analysis; Route guidance; Travel time; Urban highways
• Candidate Terms: Copula-based models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01644323
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 28 2017 3:57PM