ECONOMIC MODELING OF CHANGING MARITIME TRANSPORT PATTERNS IN THE 80'S: A NEW APPROACH

Considering the long history of seagoing transport, the application of economic analysis to the maritime industry is a recent development. That analysis, which has generally taken the form of traditional marginalist modeling of a competitive industry, has largely focused on the segment of the liner market operating under conference arrangements. Unfortunately, these theoretical models have been notoriously poor predictors of the behavior of both individual shipping firms and the industry as a whole. Their weaknesses are primarily attributable to the naive view of the maritime markets, which their development has assumed. It is the purpose of this paper, therefore, to develop an empirically verifiable theoretical model based upon an assumption structure consistent with existing market conditions. Such a model should be of potential benefit for both explanation and prediction. In order to develop the theoretical model it was first necessary to consider relevant earlier efforts to apply economic analysis to the maritime industry. The results of this investigation are included in Section 2. Next, the changes that have occurred in the structure of the industry during the post-war period are investigated in Section 3. The model itself is developed in Section 4 in light of the limitations of earlier efforts on the one hand and actual market conditions on the other.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • From the Proceedings of the 20th Annual Meeting, Transportation Alternatives in a Changing Environment, Chicago, 29-31 October 1979.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Cross (Richard B) Company

    Oxford, Indiana,   USA  47971
  • Authors:
    • Dicer, G N
    • Sentell, G D
  • Publication Date: 1979

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00303980
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Proceeding
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 22 1980 12:00AM