FORECASTING DEMAND AND REVENUE FOR TRANSIT PREPAID PASS AND FARE ALTERNATIVES

This paper presents a relatively low-cost, easily implemented method for forecasting the demand and revenue impacts of alternative transit-fare prepayment (TFP) instruments and transit fares. In addition, alternative TFP strategies and their price implications are derived in some detail from basic TFP objectives. The forecasting technique focuses on computing price elasticities by individual market segments by using data from previous fare and service changes and then applying these results to forecast changes in the present transit system. The market segments are chosen to correspond with the issues being analyzed, thereby increasing the usefulness and accuracy of the procedure. To illustrate how the technique can be used to forecast the impacts of different monthly transit pass programs along with increases in transit fares, a case-study approach that uses local data from the Jacksonville, Florida, transit system was chosen. The data required in the analyses are typically available from most transit properties; therefore, the method is readily transferable to other areas.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 35-41
  • Monograph Title: Transit development
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00303950
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309039694
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Mar 31 1981 12:00AM