Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. The authors use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. They distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. They find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. The authors therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. They also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.

Language

  • English

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  • Accession Number: 01644765
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 8 2017 3:01PM