Evaluation of Next-Phase Greenhouse Gas Regulations for Passenger Vehicles in Mexico

In 2013, Mexico’s Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources adopted NOM-163-SEMARNAT-ENER-SCFI-2013, setting mandatory manufacturer fleet-average carbon dioxide emissions limits from new passenger vehicles for years 2014 through 2016. These standards were based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) fuel economy standards. This document examines the costs and benefits of extending Mexico's light-duty vehicle efficiency program to 2025. EPA's Optimization Model for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Automobiles model was adapted for Mexico to evaluate costs. In addition, a second cost dataset by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), was used to incorporate emerging technologies to capture falling compliance costs. Benefits were calculated based on fuel savings achieved by implementing U.S. standards and fuel cost projections. Additional analysis includes an evaluation of credit provisions and a comparison of EPA 2012 standards, EPA 2025 standards, and 2012 standards proposed by the Association of the Mexican Automotive Industry (AMIA). The authors find that adopting the most stringent greenhouse gas emissions standard based on EPA 2025 would result in fleet-average test cycle fuel economy for model year 2025 vehicles of 22 km/liter or 108 gCO₂2/km. This would represent a reduction of fuel consumption for new vehicles of 28% and a reduction of net CO₂/km of 38% from a 2016 baseline. A new vehicle sold in 2025 would save consumers $4,000 (72,000 MXN) over 20 years, with a net savings of $2,000 to $3,000. The savings to society for a single model year (2025) would be 6 billion to 11 billion USD, with cumulative benefits of 25 billion to 50 billion USD for a standard regulating model years 2018 through 2025.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Edition: White Paper
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 64p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01648229
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 2 2017 4:17PM