ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF AIR TRANSPORT

Changing supplies of various forms of energy will impact air transportation. As primary petroleum supplies are depleted, coal and oil shale will have to be substituted. However, it is not clear which sectors of the economy will be called upon to substitute new synthetic fuels. Besides economic questions, there are distinct disadvantages associated with use of synthetic fuels in the modern jet airplane-specifically, increased aromatics and higher freezing temperatures. On the other hand, conservation measures related to automobile performance may make more fuel available to aviation while, at the same time, increasing air-travel demand. In order to assess the influences of this changing energy supply on air tranport, it is necessary to predict affects on the other energy sectors. The objectives of the study, being long-range, necessitate the use of scenarios that depict plausible futures. Five economic scenarios are developed. Of these, a modest economic growth case, and an interrupted economic growth caused by failure to meet basic energy needs, appear most plausible. In context with these general scenarios, various aviation scenarios are then elaborated. /Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis/

Media Info

  • Pagination: p. 457-465

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00301247
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Nov 7 2001 12:00AM