Triggers of Urban Passenger Mode Shift - State of the Art and Model Evidence

Mode shift is at the core of sustainable transport in all world cities; yet comparatively little is known about it. While there is ample evidence of within-mode demand effects, e.g. the patronage growth following 10% bus fare reduction, in general very little is known about what mode these new passengers came from, and whether, e.g., more car drivers could have been shifted to bus if other aspects of the bus service were improved instead. These questions are crucial for policy makers who want to change the transport system towards a more sustainable modal mix and are essential in identifying the most effective policies. In this paper, the authors address this issue by gathering existing evidence of cross-mode demand interactions (or elasticities) from studies conducted worldwide as well as presenting new evidence of cross-mode elasticities from Greater Oslo, Norway. The authors establish the theoretical, methodological and empirical state of the art with respect to demand effects at a system level, i.e. across transport modes. Through a meta-analysis of this empirical evidence, which documents the impact of local and individual context on mode substitution, they identify the influence of various factors on the variation in the elasticities. The meta-analysis also addresses methodological issues and how the choice of data and method of analysis impact the results. Next, the authors present new evidence of cross elasticities from a study conducted in Greater Oslo based on 15,000 travel observations. Their estimated model illustrates very well how the same triggers, e.g. the cost of car use, bring about different mode switching effects depending on trip purpose and local circumstance, like affluence, land use and availability of alternative transport modes. The paper’s combination of consolidated evidence from the meta-analysis and new evidence from the authors' own empirical study forms the basis for recommendations to urban policymakers whose goal is to obtain modal shift. This relates not only to the necessary combination of carrot and stick. Because, as the authors show, travellers of mode i have different preferences for attributes of mode j. The authors' recommendations also address *what* carrots and *what* sticks are called for in order to successfully obtain mode shift.

• Record URL:
  https://aetransport.org/past-etc-papers/conference-papers-2016
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract used by permission of Association for European Transport.
• Corporate Authors:

  Association for European Transport (AET)

  1 Vernon Mews, Vernon Street, West Kensington
  London W14 0RL,    
• Authors:
  • Fearnley, Nils
  • Flügel, Stefan
  • Killi, Marit
  • Gregersen, Fredrik A
  • Wardman, Mark
  • Caspersen, Elise
  • Toner, Jeremy P
• Conference:
  • European Transport Conference 2016
  • Location: Barcelona , Spain
  • Date: 2016-10-5 to 2016-10-7
• Publication Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Bibliography; Figures; Tables;
• Pagination: 23p
• Monograph Title: European Transport Conference 2016: Strands

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Elasticity (Economics); Modal shift; Passenger transportation; Public transit; Sustainable transportation
• Geographic Terms: Oslo (Norway)
• Subject Areas: Highways; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01620272
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 30 2016 1:57PM