Dynamic Pricing Model of High-Speed Railway Based on Passenger with Behavior Selective Probability
High-speed railway is a new transport mode in developing country and urgently needs a reasonable dynamic pricing strategy that helps its operators to gain more revenue in market. Considering competitor and passenger travel behavior factors, this article uses loyalty index to subdivided passenger transportation market into three types, and utilizes stochastic process theory and disaggregate method to quantitatively describe passenger purchasing ticket behavior in each type. Through regarding ticket price and seat inventory as time-dependent functions, the authors construct a recursive expression which can reflect railway revenue changes in pre-sale period. On the basis of variation in revenue and different passenger types’ characteristics, the article establishes an optimal revenue model by Bellman dynamic programming and solve out the optimum solution under boundary conditions, which can provide a practical dynamic pricing strategy. In case study, the authors apply computer simulation method to get study data from Beijing-Guangzhou High-speed Railway in a 60-days pre-sale period, and through parameter fitting and genetic algorithm this article solves the model and gets result that the process of passenger purchasing behavior arrival in comprehensive transportation market follows non-homogeneous Poisson distribution, and there are four seat inventory adjustments in pre-sale period while the railway price is correspondingly made on 900RMB, 950RMB, 1000RMB and 920RMB, which can ensure railway operators gain maximum revenue under the competition with aeroplane in the same OD pair.
-
Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE20 Standing Committee on Transportation Economics.
-
Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Li, Yanjin
- Luo, Xia
- Zhu, Hai
- Huang, Qian
- Liu, Zhi
-
Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
- Date: 2017
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 19p
- Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Dynamic programming; High speed rail; Passenger transportation; Pricing; Revenues; Ticketing
- Subject Areas: Economics; Finance; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01623349
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 17-04736
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Jan 24 2017 3:31PM