Prediction Model of Concrete Girder Bridge Deterioration in Shanghai Using Weibull-Distribution Method

The bridge management system (BMS) in Shanghai has been applied to urban bridge management since 2004, and now over 2300 bridges across the city inspected annually. The prediction model of bridge deterioration is important for maintenance decision making, while most of existing methods such as regression or Markov chains are limited in prediction accuracy or not easy to use. In this paper, the overall condition of all bridges in Shanghai is analyzed, and the process method of historical data in the BMS database is given. Based on the assumption that the duration of bridge stays at each condition rating (CR) is a random variable, a prediction model of concrete girder bridge deterioration using Weibull distribution method is described. The parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained by fitting the inspected durations, then the calculation methods of bridge service-life behaviors such as the failure rate, reliability function, mean duration, or quantile statistics are also given. The predicted result of the deck system, superstructure, substructure, and whole bridge's deterioration using this approach shows that the duration of concrete girder bridge at each CR in Shanghai is about 15 years, and the service life of the bridge is generally no more than 70 years. By comparing the prediction results of three major components, it can be found that the superstructure is most easily damaged and the maintenance quality of superstructure still needed to be improved.

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHD35 Standing Committee on Bridge Management.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Fang, Yu
  • Li, Li
  • 0000-0002-7580-3559
  • Chen, Zhang
  • Sun, Lijun
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
• Date: 2017

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bridge management systems; Bridge members; Concrete bridges; Condition surveys; Deterioration; Girder bridges; Inspection; Mathematical prediction; Service life; Time duration; Weibull distributions
• Geographic Terms: Shanghai (China)
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01626649
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 17-04202
• Files: PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 27 2017 9:25AM