Modelling User Adaptation to a Campus Bicycle Share System
Understanding the changes in travel behavior over time in a transport system is essential to evaluate the performance and forecast the travel demand. However, long term travel behavior is difficult to observe and explain and even more difficult to forecast. This paper proposes an approach based on stochastic state equations to describe the gradual change of behavior over time by using panel data. Transition functions determine the likely change in behavior from one time period to another. To overcome the problem of a dynamic population and explain seasonal irregularities, the authors introduce “life cycle”, “potential demand” and “willingness to use” into their models. Then the authors discuss time-homogeneity issues and possibilities to identify states and calibrate the transition function. The model is applied to panel data from Kyoto University’s bicycle share system. The findings help us understand the adaption, “usage recover” and drop out behavior. Also the errors between actual and estimated values are analyzed to evaluate two model specifications. Overall, the results offer promising insights to a wide range of applications.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Standing Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Zhang, Cen
- Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
- Date: 2017
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 19p
- Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Bicycles; Campus transportation; Forecasting; Markov chains; Mathematical models; Stochastic processes; Travel behavior; Travel demand; Vehicle sharing
- Identifier Terms: Kyoto University
- Uncontrolled Terms: Behavior change; Behavioral adaptation; Seasonal factors
- Subject Areas: Pedestrians and Bicyclists; Planning and Forecasting;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01631686
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 17-04112
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Apr 1 2017 10:45PM