Dynamic Performance Modeling for Transportation Infrastructure Using Panel Data Models in State-Space Specifications

This study reviews different modelling approaches used in panel data for performance forecast of transportation infrastructure and the panel data models (PDMs) are highlighted for longitudinal data set. In what follows, state-space specifications of PDMs are proposed as a framework to formulate dynamic performance models for transportation facilities and estimated using panel data sets. The models could simultaneously capture the heterogeneity and update forecast through inspection. To depict this methodology in detail, three classes of dynamic PDMs are presented in four instances compared with two classes of static PDMs for a panel of composite pavement sections in one of China’s airports. In addition, estimation results obtained by ordinary least square (OLS) estimator and system generalized method of moments (SGMM) are compared for two dynamic instances. The results show that the average root mean square errors of dynamic specifications are all significantly lower than the ones of static counterparts as prediction continues over time and no significant difference of prediction accuracy can be seen between state-space model and curve shifting model in a short time period. In addition, SGMM does not obtain higher prediction accuracy than OLS in this case. And inspection intervals are suggested to be specified as several constants with integer multiple relations.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AFD10 Standing Committee on Pavement Management Systems.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Ling, Jianming
  • Du, Zengming
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
• Date: 2017

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 21p
• Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Airport runways; Data files; Dynamic models; Mathematical prediction; Pavement performance
• Uncontrolled Terms: State-space methods
• Geographic Terms: China
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Pavements;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01624621
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 17-03517
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 30 2017 5:31PM