Statewide Tourism Travel Demand Forecasting: A Behavior-Based Modeling Framework for the State of Florida
Tourism travel comprises a significant portion of the total annual long distance travels of individuals in the U.S. According to the National Household Travel Survey, of all long distance trips, about 56% are for pleasure purposes. Florida with more than 106.3 million visitors in 2015 is one of the top tourist destinations in the world and tourism is one of the state’s most significant sources of economic revenue and employment. Moreover, seasonal tourist travels in Florida are considered a major source of congestion, maintenance, security, and environmental costs that need to be considered by planners and decision makers. A comprehensive and specific framework that is required for accurate estimation and forecast of tourism trips in order to better address policy and planning concerns. However, similar to most states, tourism travels are forecasted as a secondary component in the statewide travel demand models using a straightforward process such as applying national trip rates. In this paper, an advanced behavior-based tourism modeling framework is presented which is able to incorporate important behavioral elements of tourism travels and capture the specific characteristics of tourism trips such as seasonality. The modeling framework can be easily integrated into the statewide travel demand model and used for more accurate forecast of tourism travel demand.
-
Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Standing Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values. Alternate title: Statewide Tourism Travel Demand Forecasting: Behavior-Based Modeling Framework for the State of Florida.
-
Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Pourabdollahi, Zahra
- Tillery, Richard
- Gawade, Makarand
- Hill, Thomas
- Mathews, Gabrielle
- Worrell, Joel
-
Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
- Date: 2017
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 22p
- Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Forecasting; Tourism; Travel demand
- Identifier Terms: National Household Travel Survey
- Geographic Terms: Florida
- Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01629502
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 17-03511
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Mar 20 2017 9:23AM