A novel dynamic microsimulation model to explore competing transportation health risks
Transportation systems impact public health via their effects on air pollution exposure, crash risk, and physical activity. These three risk may respond to characteristics of the built environment in different ways. However, tools and methods to consider the net impact of multiple transportation risks are limited. Existing tools rely largely on static health impact models that do not accurately estimate cumulative health impacts over time. This work developed the first dynamic micro-simulation model for quantifying the combined transportation health impacts. The model was then applied to compare transportation health impacts between neighborhoods groups sharing similar built environment characteristics across the Raleigh- Durham-Chapel Hill region. The model combines baseline demographic and health data with estimates of individual level vehicle miles traveled, transportation physical activity, and exposure to mobile-source PM₂.₅ to estimate premature mortality risks associated with each transportation health risk across the study region. The model estimates that the combined health impacts of transportation are lowest in the most walkable block groups in the region (18.4 annual excess deaths per 100,000 persons on average over 10 years, compared to 22.9 in the least walkable block groups). While air pollution health impacts are higher in the most walkable block groups (2.14 annual excess deaths per 100,000 persons compared to 1.15), physical inactivity and crash risks are lower in these areas (2.70 annual excess death per 100,000 compared to 6.66 and 13.5 compared to 15.1, respectively). Thus, designing neighborhoods to encourage active transportation has important net health benefits.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADD50 Standing Committee on Environmental Justice in Transportation. Alternate title: Novel Dynamic Microsimulation Model to Explore Competing Transportation Health Risks
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Mansfield, Theodore J
- Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
- Date: 2017
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 17p
- Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Air pollution; Built environment; Crash risk forecasting; Microsimulation; Neighborhoods; Public health
- Geographic Terms: Raleigh Metropolitan Area
- Subject Areas: Environment; Highways;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01623419
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 17-02610
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Jan 24 2017 3:32PM