Calibration of a Macroscopic Traffic Flow Model with Stochastic Saturation Rates
It is well known that freeway capacity (saturation rate) is highly uncertain and that a nominal value alone may not suffice for traffic management purposes. To analyze the impact of capacity dis- ruptions, the authors consider a macroscopic traffic flow model with stochastic saturation rates, called the stochastic switching cell transmission model (SS-CTM). The SS-CTM enables analysis of traffic delay and throughput drop due to uncertainty of capacity. In this article, the authors present a method for calibration of parameters of the SS-CTM using real traffic data from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Nominal parameters except saturation rates are estimated using a linear regression-based method. The stochastic saturation rate model is developed by clustering of observed saturation rates (mode identification) and constructing a Markov chain governing the switches between the identified modes. The authors also apply the proposed method to a segment of the US Route 101. The results imply that the saturation rate may deviate from the nominal value for a remarkable fraction of time. In addition, correlation between saturation rates at adjacent locations is significant and is thus relevant for delay and throughput analysis
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHB45 Standing Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
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Authors:
- Jin, Li
- Amin, Saurabh
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
- Date: 2017
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 25p
- Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Calibration; Highway capacity; Macroscopic traffic flow; Markov chains; Saturation flow; Stochastic processes
- Identifier Terms: California Department of Transportation
- Uncontrolled Terms: Cell transmission model
- Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01628069
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 17-02496
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Mar 2 2017 5:04PM