Methodological Comparison of Models of Vehicle Kilometers Traveled
Despite a growing number of studies on understanding factors influencing Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT) or Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), there has been little focus on evaluating and comparing methodologies being used to model VKT. In this paper, the authors present a cross- comparison of different methodologies to model time series VKT data. The authors estimate, discuss and compare Linear Least Squares Regression, ARIMA, and ARIMAX models. The authors validate each model using different time windows in the data and show that all three models overestimate the VKT per capita and are unable to predict the peak car phenomenon. Results suggest that economic and socio-demographic variables are insufficient to capture changes in VKT in Australia.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB50 Standing Committee on Transportation Planning Applications.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Shafiei, Sajjad
- Nazemi, Mohsen
- Saberi, Meead
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
- Date: 2017
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 15p
- Monograph Title: TRB 96th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Alternatives analysis; Least squares method; Mathematical models; Peak periods; Time series; Vehicle miles of travel
- Geographic Terms: Australia
- Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01626335
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 17-01554
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Feb 22 2017 5:01PM