Statistical characterization of deviations from planned flight trajectories in air traffic management
Understanding the relation between planned and realized flight trajectories and the determinants of flight deviations is of great importance in air traffic management. In this paper the authors perform an in-depth investigation of the statistical properties of planned and realized air traffic on the German airspace during a 28 day periods, corresponding to an AIRAC cycle. They find that realized trajectories are on average shorter than planned ones and this effect is stronger during night-time than day-time. Flights are more frequently deviated close to the departure airport and at a relatively large angle-to-destination. Moreover, the probability of a deviation is higher in low traffic phases. All these evidences indicate that deviations are mostly used by controllers to give directs to flights when traffic conditions allow it. Finally the authors introduce a new metric, termed di-fork, which is able to characterize navigation points according to the likelihood that a deviation occurs there. Di-fork allows to identify in a statistically rigorous way navigation point pairs where deviations are more (less) frequent than expected under a null hypothesis of randomness that takes into account the heterogeneity of the navigation points. Such pairs can therefore be seen as sources of flexibility (stability) of controllers traffic management while conjugating safety and efficiency.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/31005945
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Supplemental Notes:
- Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
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Authors:
- Bongiorno, C
- Gurtner, G
- Lillo, F
- Mantegna, R N
- Miccichè, S
- Publication Date: 2017-1
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: pp 152-163
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Serial:
- Journal of Air Transport Management
- Volume: 58
- Publisher: Elsevier
- ISSN: 0969-6997
- Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09696997
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Air traffic control; Aviation safety; Flight plans; Productivity; Trajectory
- Geographic Terms: Germany
- Subject Areas: Aviation; Operations and Traffic Management;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01619593
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Dec 21 2016 11:35AM