SHORT TERM COAL DEMAND MODEL. FINAL REPORT

This report summarizes the development of a short term model, the primary purpose of which is to predict bituminous coal and lignite consumption patterns, preferably at the State level of detail, under alternative policy scenarios. The model components described are all econometrically based. Alternative methodologies requiring additional research are presented in the final chapter. The development of a coal demand model was based upon perceptions of the unique characteristics of the various demand sectors. Historically, coal demand has been differentiated into four major components: a) coking coal demand; b) retail, manufacturing and other industrial coal demand; c) coal demand by electric utilities; and d) export demand for coal. Due to the marked differences in these four sectors, the variables they depend on, and the quantity and quality of available data, each sector was modelled separately. The demand for coal in the electric utility sector is dependent upon two major factors: electricity production and inventory levels. Chapter III details the methodology developed to forecast electricity generation by state. This variable is integrated with forecasts of inventory level to forecast coal consumption in the utility sector. Additional research recommendations suggested are based upon the availability of additional data resources, the experience and insights gained from the analyses and recognition of the dynamic nature of coal consumption patterns in the United States. (ERA citation 04:038127)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Young (Arthur) and Company

    Bethesda, MD  USA 

    Department of Energy

    1000 Independence Avenue, SW
    Washington, DC  USA  20585
  • Publication Date: 1977-4-22

Media Info

  • Pagination: 42 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00304094
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 19 1980 12:00AM