A METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING THE DERAILMENT PROBABILITY OF A FLEET OF RAILWAY VEHICLES
Procedures for stochastic dynamic analysis are developed by which the probability of dynamically induced derailment of a fleet of rail vehicles can be estimated as a function of track quality and train operating conditions. Despite the wide variety of underlying causes, virtually any derailment can be classified as occurring in one of only a few fundamental modes; for each mode, candidate performance indices are defined to relate derailment potential to the dynamic state. A procedure is established to select and quantify those indices which are most highly correlated with the identified derailment modes. In order to treat large numbers of different vehicles, generic car families are defined on the basis of dynamic similarity. Each family is then characterized by statistical distributions of the physical parameters associated with its member.
- Contributed by the Rail Transportation Division of The American Society of Mechanical Engineers for presentation at the Winter Annual Meeting, New York, New York, December 2-7, 1979.
American Society of Mechanical EngineersTwo Park Avenue
New York, NY USA 10016-5990
- BRANTMAN, R
- Griffin, J W
- Jeffcoat, R L
- Publication Date: 1979-8
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 8 p.
- TRT Terms: Crash risk forecasting; Derailments; Dynamic tests; Probability; Railroad tracks; Risk assessment; Speed limits; Standards; Statistical analysis; Vehicle design
- Uncontrolled Terms: Dynamic analysis
- Old TRIS Terms: Car design; Track standards
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Design; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors;
- Accession Number: 00303604
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 79-WA/RT-6 Conf Paper
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Feb 11 1980 12:00AM