How good are our models: a case study in the Illawarra

In 1993, the Cities of Wollongong and Shellharbour, in conjunction with the Roads and Traffic Authority built a three step transportation model covering the two local Government areas. The base year for that first model was 1991, but there were no future forecasts at that time. The model was updated using the 1996 census data in 1998, with future years of 2006 and 2016. The 2001 census data was used in the 2004 update. The most recent update occurred in 2010 using the 2006 census data with futures of 2011/21/26 and 2036. At each update improvements were made in terms of the modelling technology, the detail included in the road network, and the size of the zones, but the basic model form was similar in each case. The paper looks at the performance of each of the three model updates, and the ability of the model to predict the traffic flows in each of the ‘future’ years that have already been reached. The effects of changing modelling technology (by using forward and back projections) and the accuracy of the land use forecasts are explored. The paper concludes with a commentary on the forecasting ability of the models, with particular emphasis on the accuracy of the traffic flow forecasts, once corrections for land use forecasts have been made.

• Authors:
  • Smith, G
  • Byers, A
  • Hunter, D
• Conference:
  • Australian Institute of Traffic Planning and Management (AITPM) National Conference, 2016, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
• Publication Date: 2016-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Pagination: 14p
• Monograph Title: 2016 AITPM Traffic and Transport Conference, Sydney, New South Wales, 26-29 July, 2016

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Forecasting; Improvements; Land use; Land use planning; Local government; Mathematical models; Performance; Traffic flow; Transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Policy and planning
• Geographic Terms: Australia; Illawarra, New South Wales
• ATRI Terms: Case study; Forecast; Improvement; Land use; Local government; Modelling; Performance; Traffic flow
• ITRD Terms: 8531: Case study; 132: Forecast; LOCAL AUTHORITY
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01613407
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: Oct 19 2016 10:52AM