THE FUTURE OF THE TRUCK AND RAIL MODES AS CARRIERS OF FREIGHT IN CANADA

The freight transportation system has changed dramatically during the past three decades. Analysis of the industry has shown that the two main factors contributing to this change have been changes in retail industry output and productivity changes in the truck and rail modes. These results suggest that forecast of the future of the freight system must be based on sound forecasts of regional industrial output, energy supply and pricing policies, labour supply and wage rates and technological changes in the individual modes. This paper outlines a systematic procedure for incorporating these factors in a forecast of the freight system to the year 2000. The general economic, energy and labour assumptions are combined in a macroeconomic forecast of the Canadian economy. This forecast is disaggregated with the twenty sector input-output model and regionalized with forecasted regional share coefficients. Productivity profiles for each mode are derived from projected technological and operational improvements. These results are combined with a modal split model to generate projected freight movements for each mode. These modes are described in quantitative and qualitative terms to develop modal profiles for the forecast period. Different sets of input assumptions are used to develop three unique scenarios about the freight system and its component parts. The results of this analysis are used to identify critical areas of concern in the freight transportation system over the next two decades.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Toronto-York University Joint Program in Transportation

    4700 Keele Street, Room 430 Osgoode Hall
    Downsview, Ontario  Canada  M3J 1P3
  • Authors:
    • Kuczer, C
    • Wolff, R N
  • Publication Date: 1979-8

Media Info

  • Pagination: 300 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00302717
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 29 1979 12:00AM