Will Autonomous Vehicles Derail Trains?

The authors of this article contend that the rise of autonomous vehicles (AV) will affect passenger rail travel profoundly and in many different countries. The article offers four sections focusing on comparative economics: an overview of the potential impact on passenger travel in general; the disruption to rail travel specifically; how AVs will affect different types of rail service, such as subway, commuter, regional, and high-speed rail ; and strategies that can be used by the rail travel industry to prepare for the AV revolution. The introductory section reviews some of the other changes that are occurring in passenger transportation, focusing on car sharing and how car sharing may well be extended to AVs. The authors contend that door-to-door autonomous technology makes car sharing very attractive, by eliminating or reducing several common barriers to standard car sharing. The authors caution that AVs may constitute a tangible threat to passenger rail within the next one or two decades, regardless of the rate of adoption. Passenger attrition from rail travel will vary by type of train service, with high-speed rail staying relatively untouched by the AV movement. The authors conclude by offering rail executives a four-pronged strategy to cope with this new competitive threat: understand the impact of AVs in your country of operation, using a worst-case scenario; sharpen rail’s competitive value proposition; stress-test your investment pipeline; and establish a foothold in the AV arena.

• Record URL:
  https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/transportation-travel-tourism-automotive-will-autonomous-vehicles-derail-trains/
• Corporate Authors:

  Boston Consulting Group

  1918 Eighth Avenue, Suite 3270
  Seattle, WA  United States  98101
• Authors:
  • Hazan, Joël
  • Lang, Nikolaus
  • Ulrich, Peter
  • Chua, Jeffrey
  • Doubara, Xanthi
  • Steffens, Thomas
• Publication Date: 2016-9-30

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: n.p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Autonomous land vehicles; High speed rail; Passengers; Railroad commuter service; Railroad travel; Regional railroads; Ridership; Subways; Vehicle sharing
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Railroads; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01619405
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 21 2016 11:32AM