Simulating Impacts of Critical Transportation Infrastructure Disruptions Using Open-Source Data: Recreating and Understanding a High-Profile Highway Disruption in NB

Transportation and public safety agencies are continuing to adapt to the risk of catastrophic disruptions to critical transportation infrastructure and the resulting impacts on economies and supply chains. In addition to understanding this risk, there is the need for agencies to understand the mechanisms of disruptions at a micro-level to help them tailor their local response to the disruption. This can assist in quantifying the second and third order effects of the disruption on the broader economy. The Critical Infrastructure Branch of the New Brunswick Department of Public Safety (NBDPS) contracted researchers at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) to develop three “worst-reasonable case scenarios” for disruptions to critical transportation infrastructure in New Brunswick, then to quantify the impacts of the disruptions. This paper is a detailed version of a summary paper on one “worst-reasonable case scenario” originally published in November, 2014, in Carleton University’s Infrastructure Risk Reporter. This paper profiles the detailed approach, scenario development and simulation methodology, analysis and results to study the potential effects of a four-day independent truckers strike on the import and export of food, fuel, and other goods via the Trans-Canada Highway (TCH) at St-Jacques, New Brunswick, near the Quebec border. The project goal was to develop a better understanding of the significance of this route to the New Brunswick and regional economy and its sensitivity to disruption. The goal of this paper is to highlight how a simulation approach developed from open source (public or non-confidential) data can provide considerable insight into how a localized event can manifest itself to exploit a regional vulnerability.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Web
  • Pagination: 1 PDF file, 155 KB, 15p.
  • Monograph Title: Canadian Transportation Research Forum 50th Annual Conference - Another 50 Years: Where to From Here?//Un autre 50 ans : qu'en est-il à partir de maintenant? Montreal, Quebec, May 24-26, 2015

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01605028
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transportation Association of Canada (TAC)
  • Files: ITRD, TAC
  • Created Date: Jul 26 2016 5:04PM