Probabilistic Methods of Decision Making in Shipping Activities

When studying a large number of phenomena and processes, researchers strive to create simple patterns. From the wide variety of factors separate the main and the rest are considered secondary and ignored. Very often, in practice, in making management decisions in the presence of many options is the task to recalculate the probability of each hypothesis, once it has been observed event. Such circumstances can be decided by the theorem to verify the hypotheses (Bayesian formula) obtained as a consequence of the theorem for multiplication formula for the total probability. Bayesian formula can calculate conditional probabilities of each hypothesis, then most likely of them is taken as the basis for future action. To obtain the practical utility of the theorem to check the hypothesis, the authors examined two cases of decision arising in shipping activity.

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  • English

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  • Accession Number: 01605890
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 9 2016 8:27AM