Development of Crash Prediction Models for Curved Segments of Rural Two-Lane Highways

Crash prediction models for curved segments of rural two-lane two-way highways were developed. The modeling effort included the calibration of the predictive model found in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) as well as the development of Utah-specific models developed using negative binomial regression. The data for these models came from randomly sampled curved segments in Utah, with crash data coming from years 2008-2012. The calibration factor for the HSM predictive model was determined to be 1.50 for the three-year period and 1.60 for the five-year period. A negative binomial model was used to develop Utah-specific crash prediction models based on both the three-year and five-year sample periods. The significant variables were average annual daily traffic, segment length, total truck percentage, and curve radius. The main benefit of the Utah-specific crash prediction models is that they provide a reasonable level of accuracy for crash prediction yet only require four variables.


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Web
  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: pp 791-802
  • Monograph Title: International Conference on Transportation and Development 2016: Projects and Practices for Prosperity

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01603256
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9780784479926
  • Files: TRIS, ASCE
  • Created Date: Jun 20 2016 3:04PM