Development of Crash Prediction Models for Curved Segments of Rural Two-Lane Highways

Crash prediction models for curved segments of rural two-lane two-way highways were developed. The modeling effort included the calibration of the predictive model found in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) as well as the development of Utah-specific models developed using negative binomial regression. The data for these models came from randomly sampled curved segments in Utah, with crash data coming from years 2008-2012. The calibration factor for the HSM predictive model was determined to be 1.50 for the three-year period and 1.60 for the five-year period. A negative binomial model was used to develop Utah-specific crash prediction models based on both the three-year and five-year sample periods. The significant variables were average annual daily traffic, segment length, total truck percentage, and curve radius. The main benefit of the Utah-specific crash prediction models is that they provide a reasonable level of accuracy for crash prediction yet only require four variables.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784479926.072
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780784479926
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Knecht, Casey
  • Saito, Mitsuru
  • Schultz, Grant G
• Conference:
  • 2016 International Conference on Transportation and Development
  • Location: Houston Texas, United States
  • Date: 2016-6-26 to 2016-6-29
• Publication Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 791-802
• Monograph Title: International Conference on Transportation and Development 2016: Projects and Practices for Prosperity

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash data; Forecasting; High risk locations; Highway curves; Highway safety; Rural highways; Two lane highways
• Identifier Terms: Highway Safety Manual
• Geographic Terms: Utah
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01603256
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780784479926
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: Jun 20 2016 3:04PM