Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles

Experts predict that new automobiles will be capable of driving themselves under limited conditions within 5–10 years, and under most conditions within 10–20 years. Automation may affect road vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a host of ways, positive and negative, by causing changes in travel demand, vehicle design, vehicle operating profiles, and choices of fuels. In this paper, the authors identify specific mechanisms through which automation may affect travel and energy demand and resulting GHG emissions and bring them together using a coherent energy decomposition framework. The authors review the literature for estimates of the energy impacts of each mechanism and, where the literature is lacking, develop their own estimates using engineering and economic analysis. The authors consider how widely applicable each mechanism is, and quantify the potential impact of each mechanism on a common basis: the percentage change it is expected to cause in total GHG emissions from light-duty or heavy-duty vehicles in the U.S. The authors' primary focus is travel related energy consumption and emissions, since potential lifecycle impacts are generally smaller in magnitude. The authors explore the net effects of automation on emissions through several illustrative scenarios, finding that automation might plausibly reduce road transport GHG emissions and energy use by nearly half – or nearly double them – depending on which effects come to dominate. The authors also find that many potential energy-reduction benefits may be realized through partial automation, while the major energy/emission downside risks appear more likely at full automation. The authors close by presenting some implications for policymakers and identifying priority areas for further research.

Language

  • English

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  • Accession Number: 01597568
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 28 2016 10:31AM