How Policy Can Build the Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market: Insights from Respondent-Based Preferences and Constraints (REPAC) Model

Forecasts for alternative-fuel passenger vehicles sales have varied widely over the past three decades, often proving overly optimistic. In the recent case of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), published forecasts of new market share in North America have ranged from 1% to 28% in 2020, and from 1% to 70% by 2030. To improve their understanding of such forecasts, the authors develop a model with the goal of effectively representing key components of PEV demand, PEV supply and relevant policy in the REspondent-based Preference and Constraint (REPAC) model. Specifically, to represent consumer interest in PEVs the authors estimated a latent class discrete choice model based on data collected via a 2013 survey of 531 new vehicle-buying households in British Columbia, Canada. REPAC treats these choice model results as unconstrained (or latent) demand for PEVs. REPAC then adds “real-world” constraints based on other survey data collected in the same survey (PEV awareness and home charging access) as well as adding supply constraints to represent the limited variety and availability of PEV models. With such constraints, REPAC’s baseline (“no-policy”) forecast for annual PEV sales from 2020 through to 2030 is around 1% new market share. Forecasts for 2030 range from 1-10% with demand- focused policies in place (e.g. purchase subsidies), while strong supply-focused policy is also required to achieve 2030 market shares over 30% (i.e. a Zero-Emissions Vehicle mandate). REPAC’s forecasts are most sensitive to assumptions about PEV availability and variety, home charging access, and consumer familiarity with PEVs, but not gasoline or electricity costs.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADC80 Standing Committee on Alternative Transportation Fuels and Technologies. Alternate title: How Policy Can Build the Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market: Insights from Respondent-Based Preferences and Constraints Model
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Axsen, Jonn
  • Wolinetz, Michael
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
• Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 20p
• Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Electric vehicles; Market share; Markets; Policy
• Geographic Terms: North America
• Subject Areas: Energy; Highways; Policy; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01592904
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 16-5844
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Mar 7 2016 10:46AM