A Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: A Case Study of Osaka Prefecture

At the planning and design phase of urban mass transit system, the aim is to grasp the features of spatial and temporal distributions of passenger flow during peak period. For this goal, dynamic passenger assignment model should be applied. An indispensable input parameter of this model is time-varying interstation OD matrix of peak period. To gaining this parameter, the first step is figuring out peak period boardings (excluding interchanges, PPB). Since all-day boardings can be extracted from the given all-day OD matrix, the study focuses on forecasting the proportion of PPB. Taking Osaka Prefecture as research area, this article firstly proposes a new concept of station catchment area as the border of data collection, which can be determined by two types of risks. With the help of Spearman correlation analysis, 3 factors prove to be significantly associated with the proportion of PPB. Then two regression models are conducted with socio-economic and land-use characteristics as independent variables respectively. Results show that the model with the proportion of resident population as independent variable has a better performance, of which the adjusted R² 17 reaches 0.951 and the standard error of verification data is only 7.8 percent.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP045 Standing Committee on Intermodal Transfer Facilities. Alternate title: Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: Case Study of Osaka Prefecture
  • Corporate Authors:

    Transportation Research Board

    500 Fifth Street, NW
    Washington, DC  United States  20001
  • Authors:
    • Cheng, Yan
    • Ye, Xiafei
    • Wang, Zhi
  • Conference:
  • Date: 2016


  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 14p
  • Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01590278
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: 16-3782
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jan 12 2016 5:38PM