A Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: A Case Study of Osaka Prefecture

At the planning and design phase of urban mass transit system, the aim is to grasp the features of spatial and temporal distributions of passenger flow during peak period. For this goal, dynamic passenger assignment model should be applied. An indispensable input parameter of this model is time-varying interstation OD matrix of peak period. To gaining this parameter, the first step is figuring out peak period boardings (excluding interchanges, PPB). Since all-day boardings can be extracted from the given all-day OD matrix, the study focuses on forecasting the proportion of PPB. Taking Osaka Prefecture as research area, this article firstly proposes a new concept of station catchment area as the border of data collection, which can be determined by two types of risks. With the help of Spearman correlation analysis, 3 factors prove to be significantly associated with the proportion of PPB. Then two regression models are conducted with socio-economic and land-use characteristics as independent variables respectively. Results show that the model with the proportion of resident population as independent variable has a better performance, of which the adjusted R² 17 reaches 0.951 and the standard error of verification data is only 7.8 percent.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP045 Standing Committee on Intermodal Transfer Facilities. Alternate title: Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: Case Study of Osaka Prefecture
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Cheng, Yan
  • Ye, Xiafei
  • Wang, Zhi
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
• Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 14p
• Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Boarding; Forecasting; Passengers; Peak periods; Public transit; Urban transit
• Geographic Terms: Osaka (Japan)
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I73: Traffic Control;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01590278
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 16-3782
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Feb 16 2016 2:36PM