Dynamic Journey Time Estimation in Stochastic Road Networks with Uncertainty
This paper proposes a dynamic journey time estimation (DJTE) model that can simultaneously estimate the mean and the standard deviation (SD) of path journey times in stochastic road networks. The DJTE model is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem. The upper-level model is set to minimize the deviations of the mean and SD between the observed and estimated path journey times. The lower-level model is a reliability-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model that takes into account the variation of path journey times to ensure a certain level of confidence in journey time within the stochastic road network. A modified simulated annealing (SA) algorithm with the potential global search ability is proposed to solve the bi-level problem. Numerical example is used to illustrate the merits of the proposed DJTE model and the efficiency of the modified SA algorithm together with some insightful findings.
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABJ30 Standing Committee on Urban Transportation Data and Information Systems.
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Corporate Authors:
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20001 -
Authors:
- Tang, Qiong
- Li, Xingang
- Lam, William H K
- Ho, H W
- Tam, Mei Lam
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Conference:
- Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
- Location: Washington DC, United States
- Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
- Date: 2016
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 16p
- Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Algorithms; Dynamic traffic assignment; Reliability (Statistics); Route choice; Stochastic processes; Travel time
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01590334
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: 16-3179
- Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
- Created Date: Feb 16 2016 3:31PM