CONFIDENCE INTERVALS OF ACCIDENT FIGURES

KONFIDENZINTERVALLE VON UNFALLZAHLEN

THE THEORETICAL PRINCIPLES FOR FINDING THE CONFIDENCE LIMITS OF EMPIRICALLY OBTAINED ACCIDENT FIGURES ARE OUTLINED. THE CONVENTIONAL STATISTICAL ESTIMATES AT PRESENT KNOWN FROM LITERATURE ON THE SUBJECT ARE VALID ONLY FOR HIGH ACCIDENT FIGURES OBTAINED EMPIRICALLY. THE ESTIMATE PRESENTED IS BASED ON THE BAYES STATISTICAL PROCEDURE. IT IS VALID INDEPENDENTLY OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EMPIRICALLY OBTAINED ACCIDENT RATE. IT THEREFORE OFFERS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAYING DOWN CONFIDENCE LIMITS EVEN FOR VERY LOW EMPIRICALLY OBTAINED ACCIDENT FIGURES. BY UTILIZING THE LARGELY KNOWN TABLES OF THE CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION IT IS RELATIVELY EASY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT CONFIDENCE LIMITS. THIS ESTIMATE ALSO ENABLES A PREVIOUS KNOWLEDGE OF THE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF AN ACCIDENT RATE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE CALCULATION. THIS PROCEDURE CAN LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN THE SPAN WIDTH OF THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL AND THUS TO THE DEFINING OF A STATEMENT. THE PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF THIS TREATISE LEADS TO THE COMPILATION OF TABLES AND DIAGRAMS FOR THE CONFIDENCE LIMITS OF ACCIDENT FIGURES.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Pergamon Press, Incorporated

    Maxwell House, Fairview Park
    Elmsford, NY  United States  10523

    Pergamon Press, Incorporated

    Headington Hill Hall
    Oxford OX30BW,   England 
  • Authors:
    • Brilon, W
  • Publication Date: 1973-12

Language

  • Undetermined

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00262870
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • Report/Paper Numbers: HS-014 874
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Nov 27 1974 12:00AM