Survival Analysis of Rigid Pavement Expected and Remaining Service Life Based on Long-Term Pavement Performance Sections

Pavement service life is a key factor in both pavement design and management. In many cases, the service life is not directly observed because of limited coverage of an observation window. This is particularly true for rigid pavements as they usually stay in service for a long period of time. In this study, pavement sections including continuous reinforced concrete and jointed concrete pavement from the Long-Term Pavement Performance Program involving four southern U.S. states are highlighted. These sections are subject to the real-world traffic and environment conditions. A statistical technique referred to as survival analysis is used to model the relationship between pavement life and related variables such as structure, traffic, and environment. The model estimation results reveal the deterioration process and provide a probabilistic distribution of the service life. Furthermore, the remaining service life is also calculated based on expected and used lives. This research paper demonstrates that the survival analysis technique can serve as an effective tool to capture unobserved service life. Therefore, the expected and remaining pavement service life is more accurately estimated.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AFD10 Standing Committee on Pavement Management Systems. Alternate title: A Survival Analysis of Rigid Pavement Expected and Remaining Service Life Based on the Long-Term Pavement Performance Sections.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Hong, Feng
  • Mikhail, Magdy
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
• Date: 2016

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 15p
• Monograph Title: TRB 95th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Concrete pavements; Continuously reinforced concrete pavements; Environmental impacts; Rigid pavements; Service life; Statistical analysis; Traffic loads
• Identifier Terms: Long-Term Pavement Performance Program
• Subject Areas: Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01588997
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: 16-2367
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 31 2016 5:49PM