Road Traffic Accident Forecasts Based on Cointegration Analysis

Road traffic fatalities account for the maximum portion of total production accident fatalities in China, although they exhibit steady annual reductions in recent years. Road traffic accident forecast is a core component of a target setting which proves to be an effective measure to improve road safety by the best-performing countries. In this paper, a traffic accident prediction model aimed to set road safety targets is proposed. Based on cointegration analysis of Chinese crash and economic data, the model avoids spurious regression and shows a satisfactory precision. The prediction results can be a good reference to policymakers on their target setting.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784479384.382
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780784479384
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Yu, Qing
  • Guo, Zhongyin
• Conference:
  • Fifth International Conference on Transportation Engineering
  • Location: Dalian , China
  • Date: 2015-9-26 to 2015-9-27
• Publication Date: 2015-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Pagination: pp 2993-2998
• Monograph Title: ICTE 2015

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash data; Crash risk forecasting; Economic factors; Highway safety
• Geographic Terms: China
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I80: Accident Studies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01577207
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 9780784479384
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: Sep 28 2015 2:41PM