A HEURISTIC MODEL FOR PREDICTING BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION REQUIREMENTS

Research is directed to formulating a bridge and resource requirements simulation model for use by program managers concerned with the ground 1 lines-of-communication sector of the construction industry. Bridge alternatives are designed and selected to reduce the obstacle effect of the terrain such that commodities flow (traffic) along the line-of-communication (highway) is improved. The resulting tool provides a heuristic high-resolution model for policy testing and decision making in a highly dynamic system involving non-commensurable objectives such as cost, time and manpower. The problem of predicting bridge and resource requirements is defined through a systematic analysis of the bridge construction system's purpose, components, constraints and required information. Examples of the need for accurate prediction of requirements are discussed for both the civilian and military applications. The bridge construction system is described in terms of four components: (a) an aggregation of terrain obstacles, (b) a set of obstacle reducing alternatives, (c) a pool of construction resources, and (d) a set of bridge construction management policies. Each of the components is discussed in terms of its attributes and then variable and parameter classifications. With the elements of the system description a realistic simulation model is formulated. A controlled enumeration technique is used to generate a small set of feasible alternative bridge designs to be used in the highway construction simulation. Alternatives are designed and selected for construction from a model-user-specifield construction criteria or objective function. Bridge and resource requirements are predicted by simulating over the selected terrain, a sufficient number of highway construction replications to satisfy a preset confidence level. The bridge construction simulation model is then applied to the consideration of gap-type obstacles which may be neutralized by bridging. Two specific demonstrations of the flexibility of the model concept are provided: (a) prediction of bridge hardware and construction resource requirements for a hypothesized military operation in West Germany under conditions of uncertainty; and (b) indentification of requirements for a flood disaster relief operation in Korea for the deterministic case. Results and consequent model validity are discussed. Recommendations for further study are presented.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory

    P.O. Box 4005
    Champaign, IL  USA  61820
  • Authors:
    • Ryan, T C
  • Publication Date: 1974-7

Media Info

  • Pagination: 117 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00264664
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: CERL-TM-C-3 Tech Manu
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Dec 31 1974 12:00AM