Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have the potential to reduce green house gas emissions from the transport sector. However, the limited electric range of PEVs could impede their market introduction. Still some potential users are willing to pay more for PEVs. The combined effect of these and other influencing factors as well as the resulting future market evolution are unclear. Here, the authors study the market evolution of PEVs in Germany until 2020. The authors' results reveal a great deal of uncertainty in the market evolution of PEVs due to external conditions and the users’ willingness to pay. The authors find the future share of PEVs in German passenger car stock to range from 0.4% to almost 3% by 2020. Energy prices have a large impact on PEV market evolution as a 25% increase in fuel prices would double the number of PEVs in stock by 2020 compared to a reference scenario. The authors find a special depreciation allowance for commercial vehicles and a subsidy of 1000 Euro as the most effective and efficient monetary policy options. The high uncertainty of the market evolution implies that policies to foster market diffusion of PEVs should be dynamically adaptable to react to changing framework conditions.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.04.001
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856415000786
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09658564
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Gnann, Till
  • Plötz, Patrick
  • Kühn, André
  • Wietschel, Martin
• Publication Date: 2015-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 95-112
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
  • Volume: 77
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0965-8564
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Fuel gas; Greenhouse gases; Markets; Plug-in hybrid vehicles; Policy; Prices; Simulation
• Geographic Terms: Germany
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Energy; Environment; Highways; Policy; Vehicles and Equipment; I10: Economics and Administration; I15: Environment; I91: Vehicle Design and Safety;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01567553
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 2 2015 1:55PM