Long term Baltic Sea Ensemble Forecasting

More accurate long term forecasting can offer significant cost reduction possibilities and safety benefits for winter navigation in the Baltic Sea. For this purpose a Baltic Sea seasonal ensemble forecasting system is set up. The system is based on a general circulation model MITgcm with an integrated ice module MITgcm/sim. The system produces probabilistic predictions including sea surface temperature, ocean currents, sea-ice thickness and concentration covering up to six months. The seasonal forecast is forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forcing. This long term ensemble system is described and examples of results are shown. A case study comparing the results with observed data is presented.


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  • Accession Number: 01563139
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: POAC11-173
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 7 2015 12:51PM