Long term Baltic Sea Ensemble Forecasting

More accurate long term forecasting can offer significant cost reduction possibilities and safety benefits for winter navigation in the Baltic Sea. For this purpose a Baltic Sea seasonal ensemble forecasting system is set up. The system is based on a general circulation model MITgcm with an integrated ice module MITgcm/sim. The system produces probabilistic predictions including sea surface temperature, ocean currents, sea-ice thickness and concentration covering up to six months. The seasonal forecast is forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forcing. This long term ensemble system is described and examples of results are shown. A case study comparing the results with observed data is presented.

• Record URL:
  http://www.poac.com/Papers/POAC11_80-192.zip
• Summary URL:
  http://www.poac.com/PapersOnline.html
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03766756
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission of the International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering Under Arctic Conditions (POAC).
• Corporate Authors:

  Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC)

  ,    
• Authors:
  • Westerlund, Antti
  • An, Byoung Woong
  • Stipa, Tapani
• Conference:
  • 21st International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC'11)
  • Location: Montréal , Canada
  • Date: 2011-7-10 to 2011-7-14
• Publication Date: 2011

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References;
• Pagination: 10p
• Monograph Title: POAC '11: Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions
• Serial:
  • Proceedings of the International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering Under Arctic Conditions
  • Publisher: Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions (POAC)
  • ISSN: 0376-6756
  • EISSN: 2077-7841
  • Serial URL: http://www.poac.com/PapersOnline.html

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Case studies; Navigation; Ocean currents; Sea ice; Ships; Surface temperature; Thickness; Weather forecasting; Winter
• Geographic Terms: Baltic Sea
• Subject Areas: Environment; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; I15: Environment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01563139
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: POAC11-173
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 18 2015 11:00AM