Real-time bus arrival information system-an empirical evaluation

Waiting time uncertainty is one of the main determinants of public transport reliability and overall level-of-service. The dissemination of real-time information concerning vehicle arrivals is often considered an important measure to reduce unreliability. Moreover, the prediction of downstream vehicle trajectories could also benefit real-time control strategies. In order to adequately analyze the performance of real-time bus arrival information system, the generated predictions have to be compared against empirical bus arrival data. A conventional real-world bus arrival prediction scheme is formulated and applied on the trunk lines network in Stockholm. This scheme was found to systematically underestimate the remaining waiting time by 6.2% on average. Prediction error accuracy and reliability varies considerably over time periods, along the route and as a function of the prognosis horizon. The difference between passengers' waiting time expectations derived from the timetable and real-time information is equivalent to 30% of the average waiting time.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Web
  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: pp 1310-1315
  • Monograph Title: 16th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC 2013)

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01562938
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 9781479929146
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 5 2015 10:55AM