On the cost of misperceived travel time variability

Because individuals may misperceive travel time distributions, using the implied reduced form of the scheduling model might fall short of capturing all costs of travel time variability. The authors reformulate a general scheduling model employing rank-dependent utility theory and derive two special cases as econometric specifications to study these uncaptured costs. It is found that reduced-form expected cost functions still have a mean–variance form when misperception is considered, but the value of travel time variability is higher. The authors estimate these two models with stated-preference data and calculate the empirical cost of misperception. The authors find that: (i) travelers are mostly pessimistic and thus tend to choose departure times too early to achieve a minimum cost, (ii) scheduling preferences elicited using a stated-choice method can be relatively biased if probability weighting is not considered, and (iii) the extra cost of misperceiving the travel time distribution might be nontrivial when time is valued differently over the time of day and is substantial for some people.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.03.014
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856415000567
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09658564
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Xiao, Yu
  • Fukuda, Daisuke
• Publication Date: 2015-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 96-112
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
  • Volume: 75
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0965-8564
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Choice models; Costs; Departure time; Econometrics; Scheduling; Travel time; Travelers; Utility theory
• Uncontrolled Terms: Misperceptions; Variability
• Subject Areas: Economics; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01561329
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 20 2015 10:04AM