RIVER CROSSING TRAVEL CHOICE: THE HUDSON RIVER EXPERIENCE

A SET OF MODELS HAS BEEN DEVELOPED TO ALLOCATE PEAK-PERIOD AND OFF-PEAK-PERIOD TRIPS FOR EACH OF THREE MODES-AUTO, BUS, AND RAIL-TO FACILITIES CROSSIING THE HUDSON RIVER. THE SET OF ALLOCATION MODELS IS ONE OF A SERIES OF MODELS TO BE USED TO FORECAST TRANS-HUDSON TRAVEL FOR ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NEW YORK REGION'S CHANGING DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY. PREVIOUS TECHNIQUES WERE REVIEWED TO DETERMINE THE BEST ONE FOR DEVELOPING THE ALLOCATION OR ASSIGNMENT PROCESS. UNLIKE MOST PREVIOUS TECHNIQUES, THE METHOD SELECTED INCORPORATED A NUMBER OF DETERMINANTS OF ROUTE CHOICE. MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS FED BY A MASSIVE DATA BANK AND A LARGE BATTERY OF PROGRAMS WAS USED. TIMES, COSTS, AND NUMBER OF TRANSFERS WERE COMPARED ON AN ORIGIN-DESTINATION BASIS FOR EACH CROSSING FACILITY WITHEN A MODE; AND THEIR RELATIVE TRANSPORTATION PARAMETERS WERE ASCERTAINED TO DESCRIBE VARIATIONS IN FACILITY USAGE. THE RESULTS SHOWED THE GREAT INFLUENCE OF TIME SAVINGS ON THE AUTO USER, SUGGESTING THE GENERAL VALIDITY OF THE OFTEN-USED ALL-OR-NOTHING MINIMUM-TIME-PATH APPROACH TO ASSIGNING AUTO TRAFFIC. THE ALLOCATION MODELS FOR THE OTHER MODES SUGGEST A LESSER BUT STILL HIGH VALUE OF TIME, WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL NUMBER OF TRANSFERS BEING AN IMPORTANT DETERMINANT OF THE RAIL CROSSING CHOICE. DUMMY VARIABLES TO TEST USER BIASES TOWARD PARTICULAR FACILITIES WERE TRIED BUT WITH NO USABLE RESULTS. FAMILIES OF CURVES OF THE MODELS WERE PREPARED THAT GREATLY AIDED THE ANALYSIS AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE MODELS. THE ALLOCATION MODELS WERE RUN FOR THE BASE YEAR 1964 TO COMPARE THE RESULTS WITH THE ACTUAL TRIP VOLUMES. RESULTS WERE GENERALLY GOOD, BUT "FINE TUNING" WAS NECESSARY FOR THE AUTO MODE. THE MODELS DEVELOPED WERE DEEMED USABLE FOR FORECASTING PURPOSES WITH FULL KNOWLEDGE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF SUCH EMPIRICALLY DERIVED RELATIONSHIPS A CONTINUING RESEARCH EFFORT WITH NEW DATA AND IMPROVED TECHNIQUES IS BEING PLANNED. /AUTHOR/

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 54-67
  • Monograph Title: Travel analysis
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00241436
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Feb 12 1971 12:00AM