TIME-SERIES MAPS FOR THE PROJECTION OF LAND-USE PATTERNS

THE USE OF TIME-SERIES MAPS PROVIDES A FACSIMILE OF OBSERVED CHANGES IN LAND USES ASSOCIATED WITH GROWTH, DECLINE, AND CHANGING RELATIVE LOCATION. THE PROCEDURE IS EXTENDED TO EMBRACE EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PAST THROUGH THE PRESENT INTO THE FUTURE BY INCLUDING FOUR STEPS: (1) QUANTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF LAND-USE DATA AT TIME INTERVALS OVER A NUMBER OF YEARS, (2) MEASUREMENT OF CHANGE IN BOTH THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF MAJOR USES, (3) SEARCH FOR REGULARITIES IN BOTH LOCATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF MAJOR LAND USES AND THE RATE, DIRECTION, AND MAGNITUDE OF CHANGE, AND (4) EXTRAPOLATION OF BOTH INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF MAJOR LAND USES, ON THE BASIS OF PAST REGULARITIES, INTO THE NEAR FUTURE. TWO EXAMPLES ARE PRESENTED OF THE PROCEDURE WHICH HAS AIDED THE PROJECTION OF FUTURE LAND-USE PATTERNS FOR HIGHWAY PLANNING PURPOSES IN THE MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL METROPOLITAN AREA. THE STUDIES DESCRIBED HAVE THREE IMMEDIATE USES: (1) THEY AID IN PLANNING LAND ACQUISITIONS FOR HIGHWAYS BY HELPING TO FORESEE WHERE IT IS MOST IMPORTANT TO BUY RIGHT-OF-WAY IN ANTICIPATION OF RISING LAND COSTS AND FUTURE TRAFFIC, (2) THEY ARE A VALUE IN HIGHWAY PROGRAMMING FOR THEY HELP TO INDICATE HOW MUCH TRAFFIC GENERATION AND HIGHWAY NEEDS WILL GROW IN THE GIVEN METROPOLITAN AREA, (3) THEY ARE OF USE IN COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING BECAUSE THEY ENCOURAGE THE ARTICULATION OF FUTURE PLANS WITH EXISTING TRENDS AND PRINCIPLES.

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  • Supplemental Notes:
    • No 311, pp 13-26, 13 FIG, 3 REF Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
  • Authors:
    • Borchert, John R
    • Carroll, Donald D
  • Conference:
  • Publication Date: 1962

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Monograph Title: Impact and implications of highway improvement
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00240490
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Aug 5 1994 12:00AM