COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY LOCATION MODEL

ONE IMPORTANT COMPONENT OF THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS IS THE FORECASTING OF FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND. A MODEL IS DESCRIBED TO PREDICT THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS OF FUTURE COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY IN AN URBAN AREA. THIS MODEL DEFINES A MEASURE OF CONSUMER DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL GOODS. IT SIMULATES THE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE TRAVELING TO SATISFY THIS DEMAND. IF THE LOCATIONS OF FUTURE DEMAND ARE KNOWN (FORECAST INDEPENDENTLY), THE PLACES WHERE THIS FUTURE DEMAND CAN BE SATISIFIED CAN BE FOUND BY SIMULATION. THE MODEL DETERMINES LOCATIONS WHERE THE EXPECTED GROWTH IN SATISFIED DEMAND IS HIGH. THESE LOCATIONS ARE POTENTIAL SITES FOR FUTURE COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT. THE MODEL ALLOCATES PERSON-TRIP ORIGINS TO THEIR COMMERCIAL DESTINATIONS, USING AN EXISTING DISTRIBUTION OF COMMERCIAL LAND AND HIGHWAY NETWORK TRAVEL TIMES. THE CALIBRATION PHASE COMPARES MODEL- ESTIMATED TRIP DESTINATIONS WITH ACTUAL TRIP DESTINATIONS FOR THE PURPOSE OF MEASURING PREDICTIVE ACCURACY. THIS PHASE HAS ALSO BEEN USED TO DEMONSTRATE THE REASONABLE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL TO THE FOLLOWING VARIABLES: TRAVEL-TIME EXPONENT, LAND-USE TYPE, AND FAMILY INCOME. THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE A USEFUL TRANSPORTATION PLANNING TOOL.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 68-84
  • Monograph Title: Urban land use: concepts and models
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00240484
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Mar 18 1994 12:00AM